Abstract:

The DOE’s methodology of forecasting electricity supply is based on determining the required capacity additions to meet the demand forecasts over the planning horizon. This requires an estimate of the dependable capacity of the existing power plants (net of plants retired), capacity of committed projects (on-going or with financial closure), and capacity of generic plants based on the most efficient supply option available internationally.

The use of micro-level data may improve the forecasting accuracy of the DOE power demand forecasting model. 7 But the most important point is to make the forecasting model more transparent so that it can be independently ve rified or audited. Sinc e the difference between dependable capacity and demand measures the rese rve margin, an underestimate of the demand forecast or an overestimate of supply expansion w ill provide a false sense of energy security. For instance, the supply-demand balance in Table 8 shows that the reserve margin rises from 33 percent in 2001 to 35 percent in 2004 for the Philippines, but falls below the critical level of 25 percent in Mindanao for the 2001-2004 period.

Info

Source Institution	World Bank
Source URL	http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPHILIPPINES/Resources/Patalinghug.pdf
Page Count	32
Place of Publication	Pasig City
Original Publication Date	July 1, 2005
Tags	Competition Policy, Development, Policy, Power, Telecommunications